Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 5/08/22
US Indexes had a very uneventful session as prices were generally locked in a tight range with buyers not willing to commit more risk to the market ahead of the key US employment data release. Oil prices continued to weaken and point to expectations for a slowing global economy as the UK raised rates 50 basis points to 1.75% to cool inflation. The BOE pointed to a recession through 2023 which pushed the USD lower along with US bond yields. Traders will be watching the employment release with the expectations that a stronger than expected number will lead to a more aggressive Fed on rate rises while less than expected could point to cooling economic growth…either way will trigger some volatility and potential profit taking from bulls. RBA Monetary Policy Report at 11:30am AEST, German Industrial Production at 4pm AEST, CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate at 10:30pm AEST and US Non-Farm Employment Change at 10:30pm AEST.
Market Price Action was very contained in the US session and I would expect more of the same today!
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 5/10 points after the SPI200 again rallied in the European session off the days lows before giving back the gains and flatlining in the US session.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 6 pts to 6891
SP500 down 3.23 pts to 4151.94
NASDAQ Composite up 52.42 pts to 12720.58
Dow Jones down 85.68 pts to 32726.82
FTSE100 up 2.38 pts to 7448.06
DAX30 up 75.12 pts to 13662.68
GOLD futures US session (Spot) up $25.59 to $1790.96 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.0085 to $3.4755 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $2.12 to $88.54 a barrel
CRB Index down 0.51 pts to 281.21
AUDUSD trading at 0.6967
EURUSD trading at 1.0247
GBPUSD trading at 1.2157
USDJPY trading at 132.9700
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.750 to 105.627
The SPI200/ASX200 again ramped higher in the overnight session after being sold lower during the day session. Price pushed back up into 6922 before giving back some of the gains in a lacklustre US session. Watching 6900 resistance and 6887 support for some action but if the last few sessions are anything to go by, I may be biased short after a potential flush and failed of 6900. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts) The DOW was capped at 32920 in the European session and then spent the US session chopping around 32720 as bulls were happy to stay long and sellers kept out of the action. I expect that the action will come after the Employment data release ahead of the US open so I do not expect much today. The US Tech 100 edged higher as investors can not help themselves and continued to provide some support. Price held a flush lower and edged higher into 13330 into the US close which I would expect to hold today. The Hang Seng tested into 20375 in overnight trade after squeezing higher yesterday. Price ended locked between 20265 and 20175 in the US session so I will be looking for some weakness today on the open after a slightly stronger open for the underlying index. The Nikkei spiked higher into 28055 before failing off level and holding minor resistance at 27935. The recent trend up remains in tact but I will be watching for some profit taking and potential move down through 27830….but after the weak close overnight, it is an each way bet. The DAX Index spiked above 13645 at the start of the European session before giving back the gains into the US close. There will be a lot of trapped buyers above the level that could easily be the fuel for a squeeze lower so watching for a lower high. UK 100 Index also spiked higher before giving up the gains into the US close. Price is sitting on support around 7428 which I expect to see hold into the European open. From there I would be looking for a lower high and squeeze lower into the US data release.
Cryptos edged lower as both Bitcoin and Ethereum broke back down below minor support levels. BTC pushed below 22870 and may keep the grind lower continuing into the Asian market session. Ethereum is moving down into previous minor support around 1567 which I would expect to be tested today in a contained session.
Spot Gold picked a direction and it was up thanks to the fall in the USD. Price busted up through 1783 and is extended in the near term so I would expect to see some minor profit taking from buyers into the US data release. Crude Oil continues to come under pressure from expectations of weaker global growth and demand for Oil. Price extended just below previous lows around 88.85 which I expect was a flush of the level so may see some profit taking from sellers and a grind back above the zone. USD Index fell on talk of a recession but did push down into support around 105.700 which held into the US close. I do not expect a lot more action as traders await Payrolls data tonight so would be looking for a grind higher off the level. USDJPY is playing out nicely and reacted lower off 134.515. I am now watching for a lower high to hold for the potential short entry.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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